5766 Forester Pine Ct

Sarasota, FL 34243

$399,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $-370/mo
• Annual: $-4,435/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.1%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 7171% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?