Forsyth Plan

Simpsonville, SC 29680

$386,999D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,931 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,811/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,290
• Tax + insurance: −$728
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$800
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-86/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $122,281

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $387k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-86/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (1.5% below list).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $341k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in SC, #295 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Greenville 01 (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #10 of 80 in SC (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,595 units permitted in Greenville County in 2024 (566 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greenville County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Simpsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,811/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 553% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.