1401 W El Norte Pkwy Spc 73

San Marcos, CA 92069

$360,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Pending · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,102/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$222
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-163/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-163/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Richland Elementary (823 students, 32% FRL); Woodland Park Middle (1,183 students, 43% FRL); Mission Hills High (2,893 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.