3010 S Esperanza Ave

Tampa, FL 33629

$1,280,000F

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,016 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,712
• Tax + insurance: −$821
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,511
• Net cashflow: $-1,848/mo
• Annual: $-22,181/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.19%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $358,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $1.28M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $953k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $720k (43.8% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $720k (43.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 13374% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $395k; list at $1.28M implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $7,196/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($164k/yr) (locally 337% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.