4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
7,048 sqft ·
Built 1966
· Land
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,542/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$676
Tax + insurance
−$215
HOA
−$1,100
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$534
Net cashflow
$17/mo
Annual
$199/yr
Cap rate
6.45%
Cash-on-cash
0.55%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
1.97%
Cash to close
$36,120
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $129k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($199/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $129k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#24 in CO, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Indian Peaks Elementary School (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #634 of 966 statewide, top 67%, 251 students, 82% FRL); Sunset Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #178 of 270 statewide, top 67%, 377 students, 57% FRL); Niwot High School (math 51% / reading 71%, grade C+, #51 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,355 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 27% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 174 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,688 units permitted in Boulder County in 2024 (1,136 in 5+ unit buildings).
Boulder County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
26 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $87k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Longmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XWPK6BCV71W4V4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29