3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,981 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 149 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,111/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$447
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$443
Net cashflow
$-12/mo
Annual
$-145/yr
Cap rate
7.01%
Cash-on-cash
2.55%
DSCR
1.11
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-145/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (0.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (10.2% below list).
It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#144 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
St. Charles Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #14 of 98 in LA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 74 units permitted in St. Charles Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Charles County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $138k; list at $235k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Luling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XX30DY59CB1M14
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29