236-238 Adams St

Newton, MA 02458

$999,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax + insurance: −$984
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,461
• Net cashflow: $-726/mo
• Annual: $-8,716/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $279,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $999k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-726 ($-9k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-363/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $871k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $696k (30.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($984k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $696k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in MA, #746 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Newton (urban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #27 of 302 in MA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln-Eliot (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #371 of 938 statewide, top 43%, 338 students, 0% FRL); Bigelow Middle (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #35 of 305 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 0% FRL); Newton North High (math 81% / reading 87%, grade A, #28 of 343 statewide, top 8%, 2,099 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 31 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $999k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.4% in Newton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,957/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($154k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.