3402 Big Sur Dr

Sunrise Manor, NV 89122

$112,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,619/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $531/mo
• Annual: $6,376/yr
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.33%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $112k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#83 in NV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith Hal Es (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #396 of 402 statewide, top 99%, 708 students, 100% FRL); Harney Kathleen & Tim Ms (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #81 of 109 statewide, top 74%, 1,279 students, 100% FRL); Chaparral Hs (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #128 of 131 statewide, top 98%, 2,256 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 52% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clark County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.