4404 Garland Ave

Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$130,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 659 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$684
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,202/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $36,540

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 659 days — a 12% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $902 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L. L. Owen Elementary School (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #406 of 454 statewide, top 90%, 238 students, 100% FRL); Watson Chapel Jr. High School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #194 of 201 statewide, top 96%, 463 students, 100% FRL); Watson Chapel High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #276 of 292 statewide, top 96%, 497 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $130k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 659 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.