63 Circle Ave

Potomac Heights, MD 20640

$153,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$454
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $374/mo
• Annual: $4,485/yr
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $42,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#218 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: J. C. Parks Elementary School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #441 of 860 statewide, top 52%, 638 students, 56% FRL); General Smallwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 25%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 543 students, 57% FRL); Henry E. Lackey High School (math 26% / reading 49%, grade F, #138 of 222 statewide, top 63%, 1,042 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 28% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.