250 E Telegraph Rd #155

Fillmore, CA 93015

$259,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $779/mo
• Annual: $9,349/yr
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.85%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#145 in CA, #4,935 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, cost of living F.
• Fillmore Unified (town): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,196 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 1.8% in Fillmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.