4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,566 sqft ·
Built 1983
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 119 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,850/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$624
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$808
Net cashflow
$325/mo
Annual
$3,903/yr
Cap rate
7.27%
Cash-on-cash
3.49%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $399k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $163/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (3.5% below list).
It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $363k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Eisenhower Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 661 students, 74% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $200k; list at $399k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,850/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1209% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XXW4YZENPM9J5R
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29