301 S 14 St

Keithsburg, IL 61442

$13,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $796/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$68
• Tax + insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $539/mo
• Annual: $6,467/yr
• Cap rate: 56.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 177.67%
• DSCR: 8.91
• 1% rule: 6.12%
• Cash to close: $3,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $13k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($796 rent vs $13k).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $11k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $360 of equity ($90 loan paydown + $270 appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,212 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Mercer County School District 404 (town): math 14% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #439 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.