11113 Mickelson Dr

Austin, TX 78747

$307,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,899 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax + insurance: −$729
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-601/mo
• Annual: $-7,209/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.39%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $85,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-601 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.