48076 Autumn Ct

Harris, MN 55080

$426,500C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,236 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,237
• Tax + insurance: −$512
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$928
• Net cashflow: $743/mo
• Annual: $8,919/yr
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $119,420

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $426k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $426k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($401k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $401k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#761 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rush City Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #195 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $363k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.