5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,824 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 485 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,725/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$540
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$782
Net cashflow
$1,537/mo
Annual
$18,445/yr
Cap rate
17.47%
Cash-on-cash
39.92%
DSCR
2.78
1% rule
2.26%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $769/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 485 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: South Middle School (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 878 students, 58% FRL); Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
10 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $134k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,725/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 485 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29