1145 E Barham Dr #109

San Marcos, CA 92078

$163,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Built 1960 · Manufactured · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $1,280/mo
• Annual: $15,357/yr
• Cap rate: 15.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.65%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $45,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $163k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 232 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.