2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,248 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,786/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$108
HOA
−$925
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$375
Net cashflow
$37/mo
Annual
$443/yr
Cap rate
6.98%
Cash-on-cash
2.44%
DSCR
1.11
1% rule
2.75%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($443/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XZDVGP2KEKT3V2
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29