613 Alpha St

Waynesboro, VA 22980

$429,000B-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,400 sqft · Built 1935 · MultiFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,031
• Net cashflow: $1,217/mo
• Annual: $14,608/yr
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.16%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $304/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $429k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#155 in VA, #4,902 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Waynesboro City Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #108 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Perry Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 446 students, 85% FRL); Kate Collins Middle (math 28% / reading 57%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 644 students, 86% FRL); Waynesboro High (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 905 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 50% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Waynesboro city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waynesboro County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $429k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.3% in Waynesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,908/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 858% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.