3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,372 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,987/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,098
Tax + insurance
−$546
HOA
−$502
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$627
Net cashflow
$-786/mo
Annual
$-9,428/yr
Cap rate
3.94%
Cash-on-cash
-8.42%
DSCR
0.63
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$112,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $400k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-786 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (34.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (25.3% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $261k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#75 in WA, #1,371 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Auburn School District (urban): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #125 of 291 in WA (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lakeland Hills Elementary (536 students, 35% FRL); Auburn Riverside High School (1,909 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $106k; list at $400k implies a 277% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.7% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XZT5CZ6ZNAB3C3
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29