2031 Wintergreen Pl

Rosedale, MD 21237

$157,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$59
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $918/mo
• Annual: $11,017/yr
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.98%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $44,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#37 in MD, #1,338 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Red House Run Elementary (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 615 students, 60% FRL); Golden Ring Middle (math 4% / reading 30%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 903 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 39% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $158k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.9% in Rosedale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.