1210 Cacique St #14

Santa Barbara, CA 93103

$275,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 440 sqft · Built 1959 · Manufactured · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$885
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-231/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-231/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#219 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Barbara Unified (urban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #409 of 1,400 in CA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $275k implies a 555% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.8% in Santa Barbara — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.