229 Middleline Rd

Ballston Spa, NY 12020

$425,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Built 2004 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$725
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$859
• Net cashflow: $278/mo
• Annual: $3,336/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $139/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (3.7% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $409k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,680 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #137 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake Senior High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 928 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 97% at this address vs 68% district-wide (+29 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Ballston Spa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,091/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 607% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.