4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,400 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 32 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$12,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,082
Tax + insurance
−$2,232
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,520
Net cashflow
$2,167/mo
Annual
$26,001/yr
Cap rate
8.98%
Cash-on-cash
9.58%
DSCR
1.43
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$271,320
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $969k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $969k).
It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($940k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $940k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#753 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Suffern Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #242 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Cherry Lane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 256 students, 36% FRL); Suffern Middle School (math 30% / reading 56%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 836 students, 38% FRL); Suffern Senior High School (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,486 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 18% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $725k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.8% in Airmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y13R9Q6HHKM4AX
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29