1260 Main Rd

Jamesport, NY 11901

$695,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$1,320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,857
• Net cashflow: $9,545/mo
• Annual: $114,534/yr
• Cap rate: 22.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.86%
• DSCR: 3.62
• 1% rule: 2.64%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $695k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($115k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $695k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($685k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $685k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $311k; list at $695k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $195k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.