33 Thompson St

Red Hook, NY 12571

$345,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,408/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$743
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $140/mo
• Annual: $1,680/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.74%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in NY, #113 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Intermediate Grades (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 325 students, 30% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $345k implies a 2200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.