315 N Ave N

Post, TX 79356

$149,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-880/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.11%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-880/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Post ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #545 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Post El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 341 students, 76% FRL); Post Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 183 students, 66% FRL); Post H S (math 74% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 217 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Garza County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garza County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $149k implies a 1390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.