4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,019 sqft ·
Built 2022
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,455/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,753
Tax + insurance
−$622
HOA
−$85
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$726
Net cashflow
$-731/mo
Annual
$-8,771/yr
Cap rate
4.62%
Cash-on-cash
-5.97%
DSCR
0.73
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$147,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-731 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (24.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (34.2% below list).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $345k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#263 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
Bennett School District No. 29J (rural): math 13% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 86 in CO (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Bennett Preschool (71 students, 11% FRL); Bennett Middle School (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #168 of 270 statewide, top 63%, 304 students, 38% FRL); Bennett High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #209 of 381 statewide, top 56%, 427 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 16306% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y27S2Z5H7HP73B
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29