3815 Blaylock Rd

Lake Tansi, TN 38572

$104,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $519/mo
• Annual: $6,232/yr
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.22%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#245 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County (rural): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #59 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank P. Brown Elementary (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #365 of 952 statewide, top 39%, 615 students, 0% FRL); Cumberland County High School (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 985 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 114 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.