162 Middle Line

Water Mill, NY 11968

$2,195,000B-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,160 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $24,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,511
• Tax + insurance: −$1,430
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,072
• Net cashflow: $6,141/mo
• Annual: $73,687/yr
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.99%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $614,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($74k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $2.19M).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.06M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $615k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $24,154/mo this rent would consume 186% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.