12809 SW Forli Way

Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$339,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,673 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$107
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-77/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-77/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.