712 15th St

Abernathy, TX 79311

$120,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $659/mo
• Annual: $7,905/yr
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.53%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.