5228 NW Ashwick Ln

Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$294,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,466 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,736/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-927/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $82,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-927/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.