9801 Ridgecreek Rd

Boca Raton, FL 33496

$505,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax + insurance: −$773
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$732
• Net cashflow: $-869/mo
• Annual: $-10,425/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $141,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $505k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-869 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($444k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.8% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.