5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1967
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 242 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,728/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$697
Tax + insurance
−$222
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$363
Net cashflow
$446/mo
Annual
$5,355/yr
Cap rate
10.32%
Cash-on-cash
14.38%
DSCR
1.64
1% rule
1.30%
Cash to close
$37,240
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Alexander Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #848 of 952 statewide, top 91%, 385 students, 0% FRL); Jackson Central Merry High School (438 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,728/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1701% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y5KC2XFB53B3B9
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29