Churchill (Old Hickory) Plan

Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37115

$85,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,483
• Tax + insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-1,206/mo
• Annual: $-14,471/yr
• Cap rate: 1.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.27%
• DSCR: 0.19
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $79,206

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neely'S Bend Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #784 of 952 statewide, top 82%, 368 students, 0% FRL); Haynes Middle (math 0% / reading 3%, grade F, #332 of 333 statewide, top 100%, 291 students, 0% FRL); Hunters Lane High (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #321 of 332 statewide, top 97%, 1,466 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.