1829 N Breckon Dr

Hobbs, NM 88240

$225,000C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $320/mo
• Annual: $3,836/yr
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#37 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hobbs Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #45 of 95 in NM (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Lea County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lea County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.