11 John St

Quiogue, NY 11978

$1,599,000A-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,508/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,385
• Tax + insurance: −$1,266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,727
• Net cashflow: $8,130/mo
• Annual: $97,561/yr
• Cap rate: 12.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.79%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $447,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($98k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.60M).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.58M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $171k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,023 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Westhampton Beach Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #81 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Westhampton Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 356 students, 43% FRL); Westhampton Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 434 students, 26% FRL); Westhampton Beach Senior High School (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 964 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $785k; list at $1.60M implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $448k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$275k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $22,508/mo this rent would consume 216% of the median local household income ($125k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.