11800 Johanna Dr

Missoula, MT 59804

$55,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1987 · Other · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $827/mo
• Annual: $9,928/yr
• Cap rate: 24.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.47%
• DSCR: 3.87
• 1% rule: 2.91%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $827 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#17 in MT, #2,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Missoula H S (urban): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #53 of 116 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Target Range School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C, #67 of 293 statewide, top 23%, 437 students, 0% FRL); Target Range 7-8 (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #37 of 146 statewide, top 26%, 137 students, 0% FRL); Big Sky High School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #74 of 132 statewide, top 56%, 1,186 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 773 units permitted in Missoula County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Missoula County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 1.6% in Missoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.