555 Morrel Ave

Alturas, FL 33859

$120,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 405 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $217/mo
• Annual: $2,599/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#678 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Lake Wales Senior High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,586 students, 64% FRL, charter).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $77k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.