526 Blue Hollow Rd

Rose Hill, VA 24281

$189,999D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,269 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,262/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#49 in VA, #1,166 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $190k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.9% in Rose Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.