19 Tiffany Rd

Oyster Bay Cove, NY 11771

$1,325,000C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,948
• Tax + insurance: −$1,730
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,730
• Net cashflow: $1,592/mo
• Annual: $19,104/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $371,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.32M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.30M (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.29M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,132 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #120 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt School (325 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay Middle School (217 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay High School (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 415 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $772k; list at $1.32M implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.