3107 E Osborne Ave

Tampa, FL 33610

$246,600C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 166 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $311/mo
• Annual: $3,731/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $69,048

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Potter Elementary School (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 472 students, 89% FRL); Mclane Middle School (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 817 students, 74% FRL); Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $247k implies a 311% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,223/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2431% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.