14323 Melva Dr

Warren, MI 48088

$259,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,578 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-147/mo
• Annual: $-1,769/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Warren Woods Public Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #336 of 540 in MI (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Briarwood Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 332 students, 81% FRL); Warren Woods Middle School (math 22% / reading 41%, grade F, #323 of 493 statewide, top 66%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Warren Woods Tower High School (math 26% / reading 50%, grade F, #331 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 1,047 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $184k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?