1018 N 22nd Pl

Phoenix, AZ 85006

$1,100,000D-

16 bd · 8.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax + insurance: −$1,833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,109
• Net cashflow: $333/mo
• Annual: $3,995/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $308,000

Investor read

• This is a 8 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $42/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.00M (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($968k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $968k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.1%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $1.10M implies a 592% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,044/mo this rent would consume 207% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1133% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.