3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,800 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,981/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,075
Tax + insurance
−$309
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$416
Net cashflow
$181/mo
Annual
$2,170/yr
Cap rate
7.35%
Cash-on-cash
3.78%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$57,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (3.4% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $198k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#243 in PA, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute D+, amenities F.
East Pennsboro Area SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #275 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: East Pennsboro Area Shs (math 82% / reading 72%, grade A-, #22 of 437 statewide, top 5%, 761 students, 36% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+34 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the East Pennsboro Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $125k; list at $205k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Enola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y8NJ2EF5MDQX9B
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29