5303 Pharr Ln

Siesta Shores, TX 78076

$145,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-713/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-713/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,334 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zapata South El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 467 students, 86% FRL); Zapata Middle (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 784 students, 83% FRL); Zapata H S (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,034 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 70% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.