138 Sunset Cir

Little Falls, NY 13365

$75,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $197/mo
• Annual: $2,367/yr
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.07%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#440 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Falls City School District (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #492 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $75k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 8.0% in Little Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.