2020 Conchita St

San Angelo, TX 76901

$175,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-200/mo
• Annual: $-2,401/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rita El (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 371 students, 40% FRL); Lone Star Middle (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 903 students, 63% FRL); Central H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 3,065 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.