3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,008 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,985/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$163
HOA
−$22
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$417
Net cashflow
$518/mo
Annual
$6,217/yr
Cap rate
10.06%
Cash-on-cash
13.46%
DSCR
1.60
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#267 in FL, #4,332 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, employment D-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.1%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $33k; list at $165k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YAEK079MVKWJRV
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29